January to June, China's knitting industry economic operation analysis
Since 2022, the international situation has become more complex and frequent domestic epidemics and other factors, the pressure on China's macroeconomic operation has increased, industrial production and efficiency growth has slowed down, and the manufacturing sector has fallen back more significantly. The domestic market is obviously affected by the epidemic, the overall reduction in the scale of sales, market consumption will decline. In this external environment, China's knitting industry to actively respond to strengthen the adjustment, maintaining the stability and development of the industry.
01 Industry operation
(A) the size of the growth rate continues to slow down
In the first half of this year, China's knitting industry on the overall operating income of enterprises to achieve growth, but the growth rate fell back significantly, the industry scale growth shows a slowdown.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, January to June, the knitting industry on the scale of enterprise operating income rose 6.35% year-on-year, 0.61 percentage points higher than the textile industry, the growth rate fell 6.95 percentage points over the previous year, compared with the first quarter of this year, a decline of 5.91 percentage points; including knitted fabrics on the scale of enterprise operating income rose 9.23% year-on-year, knitted garments on the scale of enterprise operating income rose 4.66%, the growth rate of 10.39 percentage points and 5.18 percentage points lower than the previous year, respectively, than in the first quarter of this year, down 8.41 percentage points and 4.62 percentage points.
Production growth slowed down significantly, and in June there was negative growth. January to June this year, the cumulative output of knitted garments on the gauge enterprises fell 0.56% year-on-year, the growth rate of 11.42 percentage points lower than last year, 4.33 percentage points lower than the first quarter of this year.
(B) production costs are still at a high level
Since this year, the industry costs are running at a high level, the growth of operating costs has been higher than the growth of operating income.
National Bureau of Statistics data show that from January to June, the knitting industry on the scale of enterprise operating costs rose 7.56% year-on-year, the growth rate of 1.21 percentage points higher than the operating income. Among them, knitted fabrics above-standard enterprises operating costs rose 9.89% year-on-year, higher than the operating income of 0.66 percentage points; knitted garments above-standard enterprises operating costs rose 6.16% year-on-year, higher than the operating income of 1.5 percentage points.
Costs grew faster, the proportion of operating costs in operating income is too high, seriously compressing the profit margin of enterprises. 1 to June knitting enterprises per 100 yuan of operating income in the cost of 0.99 yuan more than the same period last year, equivalent to a profit margin fell by nearly 1 percentage point.
In the first half of the year, the national PPI (industrial producer price index) rose 7.7%, including chemical fiber manufacturing prices rose 7.9% year-on-year, the textile and apparel industry prices rose only 0.9%, far below the level of chemical fiber prices. In addition, from January to June industrial producers purchase prices rose 10.4%, including textile raw materials prices rose 8.6%, up significantly higher than the ex-factory prices of textiles and clothing.
According to the analysis of China Textile Economic Research Center, this year, the textile industry raw material prices are high, in a weak demand market environment, the cost is difficult to conduct along the industrial chain, seriously squeezing the profitability of enterprises. Oil, natural gas and other international energy prices fluctuate at high levels, dyeing and chemical materials have increased by nearly 30% year-on-year, Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions in March to May steam prices continue to rise ringgit, in the case of weak market demand, the cost pressure is difficult to conduct downward, the general deterioration of corporate profitability. Although the price of cotton raw materials from June began to decline back, but the overall level of raw material prices in the first half of this year is still at a high level in recent years.
(C) operating efficiency continues to improve
The growth of costs seriously affected the profitability level of the industry. In the first quarter, profits fell significantly, the second quarter began to show a certain degree of growth, reflecting the determination of industry enterprises to actively respond and action.
January to June, the knitting industry, the total profit of enterprises on the scale rose 13.31% over the same period last year; total profit of knitted fabrics rose 1.69%, knitted garments rose 20.20% year-on-year. Knitting industry above-standard enterprises in January to June profit margin of 4.24%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points, the growth rate of 0.97 percentage points higher than the first quarter of this year.
Since this year, enterprises actively respond to external changes, strengthen management to improve efficiency. 1 to June, the knitting industry on the three costs of enterprises accounted for 7.09%, down 0.82 percentage points over the same period last year. At the same time, with the nationwide resumption of textile enterprises continue to promote the resumption of production, knitting industry on the loss side of the enterprise situation has also improved. 1 ~ June knitting industry on the loss side of the enterprise is 26.80%, compared with the first quarter, a reduction of 3.66 percentage points.
(D) exports to maintain rapid growth
Since this year, China's exports of textiles and clothing and knitted products have continued a good growth trend. In the first half of the year, the country's exports of textiles and clothing 156.49 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 11.7%. Among them, textile exports of $ 76.32 billion, an increase of 11.3%; garment exports of $ 80.17 billion, an increase of 12.0%.
January to June, China's exports of knitted products 54.343 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 21.37%. Among them, exports of knitted fabrics 12.618 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 18.8%; knitted garment exports 41.725 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 22.1%.
From the main export markets, China's exports to the United States, ASEAN, the European Union still maintains a high rate of increase. 1 to June, China's knitted products to the United States, Europe, Japan and ASEAN market exports totaled $ 32.752 billion, an increase of 27.42% over the same period last year; in addition to the United States, Europe, Japan and other markets outside ASEAN exports totaled $ 21.591 billion, an increase of 13.22%.
The export growth momentum of the top three markets is particularly prominent. 1 to June China's knitted products to the United States, ASEAN, the EU market were exported 10.872 billion U.S. dollars, 10.258 billion U.S. dollars and 8.249 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 31.50%, 29.83% and 35.57%. These three markets accounted for the share of China's knitted products exports reached 54.06%, an increase of 4.36 percentage points over the same period last year.
(E) the domestic market is not active enough
Affected by the epidemic, the domestic consumption of textile and apparel products again declined, due to the epidemic in a number of places to disseminate frequent, restricted flow of people and logistics on online and offline sales have caused a greater impact.
In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods 21.04 trillion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year, the growth rate of 4 percentage points lower than the first quarter of this year; of which the total retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, needles and textiles above the limit of 628.2 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, the growth rate of 5.6 percentage points lower than the first quarter. In the online retail sales of physical goods, wear category grew by 2.4% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 1.5 percentage points higher than the first quarter. At the same time, according to the Oriental Fortune Data Center, China's consumer confidence index value fell below 90 points since April this year, which is the first time in the past five years fell below the critical value, which further indicates that the current lack of domestic consumer confidence, weak market demand, the economic recovery process is slowing down, but also caused by the knitting industry in small and medium-sized orders, the main source of pressure on the lack of machine starts.
02 second half of the industry trend forecast and response measures
Although the current textile enterprises are under pressure to move forward, but still see the domestic economic fundamentals are good, the effect of policy measures will gradually appear, to firm confidence in the development, make full use of policy measures window period. The international economic and market situation will continue to be in the complex changes, since June 21 this year, the U.S. border bill came into effect, China's textile foreign trade enterprises or face certain pressure. According to the estimates of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles, it is expected that the second half of this year, China's textile and apparel orders may be accelerated, cotton textile orders transferred to about $ 2 billion, and mainly to India and other countries, enterprises should be calm, and actively respond.
With the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, stable economic package of policy measures to accelerate the implementation of the effective, the National Bureau of Statistics is expected to accelerate the overall recovery of China's economy in the second half of the year. June China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to the expansion range, reaching 50.2%, the overall level of prosperity in the manufacturing industry has improved. The production index and new orders index were 52.8% and 50.4% respectively, both back above the critical point, up 3.1 and 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing market demand has improved and production has accelerated recovery.
In order to improve the second half of the consumer confidence, enhance the level of domestic demand, increase the amount of orders, the government and enterprises themselves should actively respond to take effective measures to improve the status quo in a timely manner. On the one hand, a series of policies conducive to the healthy operation and development of the industry; on the other hand, seize the favorable opportunity to actively adjust to promote industry stability and enhance.
First, local governments should implement a good package of national policies and measures to stabilize the economy, strengthen the supervision of policy implementation, and ensure that policies to support small and medium-sized enterprise financing, job stability and other aspects of effective implementation. At the same time, they should increase financial support, and take multiple measures to help relieve the difficulties of SMEs.
Second, actively promote the consumer goods industry to increase the variety, improve quality, create brand "three products" strategy implementation, enhance the core competitiveness of products and brand influence, and promote the consumer goods industry to accelerate the high-end level. The specific implementation of the knitting industry, to enhance the ability to collaborate innovation in the industry chain, strengthen the brand digital management capabilities, promote standards to lead the industry, accelerate the training of composite talent.
Third, actively promote the "three-year action plan for digital transformation of the textile industry", deepen the development of the industry's integration of two, improve the level of digital integration of enterprise applications, accelerate the construction of digital, intelligent production lines and production workshops. (Focus on fostering the promotion of automatic yarn (tube), automatic cloth, yarn length real-time online measurement and adjustment and constant tension adaptive control system, knitted fabric defects intelligent detection and automatic classification system, needle breakage monitoring, virtual design and process simulation, a line of molding technology, etc.).
Fourth, as the epidemic in Europe tends to stabilize, well-known exhibitions in the textile industry such as heimtextil, TW/Apparel Sourcing Paris, Asia Apparel Expo, etc. have been opened offline entity exhibitions since June this year. However, the epidemic prevention and control measures and immigration policies of countries around the world bring many uncertainties for Chinese enterprises to participate in international exhibitions. To help enterprises obtain orders and develop international markets, local governments need to encourage foreign trade enterprises to go out through policy and financial support, develop new products, understand new situations, explore new channels and accumulate new customers through exhibition platforms.
Fifth, in the face of the complex external environment, enterprises should pay more attention to the international situation and changes in the trade environment, as well as raw material prices and domestic and international market dynamics, constantly optimize production and operation programs, constantly optimize marketing channels and markets, improve the level of cost management and risk prevention and control awareness, to achieve better efficiency and effectiveness.